How often do the five favourites find the winner?

Across 940 Australian thoroughbred races in September 2026, the five shortest-priced runners included the winner 82% of the time, against 46% for five random runners. This is the bar our AI has to clear.

940 thoroughbred races, September 2026. Five picks per race (fewer in fields of nine or less).
Five picks…	Five favourites	Five at random
Includes the winner	82.0%	45.8%
Includes 1st and 2nd	58.1%	17.9%
Two or more in the top 3	83.5%	42.9%
Top pick wins	36.7%	11.5%

Why it matters: the favourites are hard to beat. We will compare every published KEIBA LIVE selection with both columns on the same races, and we will not present the favourites as our own prediction.

Source: PuntersEdge Australian racing closing-line sample (puntersedge.online), licensed under CC BY 4.0. Aggregated by KEIBA LIVE (favourites ranked by the closing market consensus); no runner-level data is shown.

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